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'持續乾旱重創巴西咖啡種植業。然而,明年天氣可能更加糟糕,屆時,巴西咖啡產量將出現1965年以來的首次連續三年下跌。 週三,彭博新聞社援引巴西國家咖啡委員會預測報道稱,下個月收割季結束後,巴西咖啡豆產量將下跌18%,至4010萬袋。每袋爲60公斤。去年產' |
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'<p>
持續乾旱重創巴西咖啡種植業。然而,明年天氣可能更加糟糕,屆時,巴西咖啡產量將出現1965年以來的首次連續三年下跌。</p>
<p>
週三,彭博新聞社援引巴西國家咖啡委員會預測報道稱,下個月收割季結束後,巴西咖啡豆產量將下跌18%,至4010萬袋。每袋爲60公斤。去年產量爲同比下降3.1%。咖啡採收季爲每年4月—9月。</p>
<p>
委員會還稱,隨着天氣形勢在南半球春季來臨前並無好轉跡象,2015年的咖啡產量可能低於4000萬袋,創50年來持續時間最長的產量下降。</p>
<p>
巴西是全球最大的咖啡豆供應國,主要生產價格相對較高的阿拉比卡咖啡豆。但該國今年的天氣狀況比較極端,7月暴雨、8月乾旱,植株生長環境非常糟糕。</p>
<p>
花旗本月曾表示,由於巴西供應短缺,全球供貨緊張可能持續到2016年。巴西去年的咖啡豆供應量佔全球總量的36%。</p>
<p>
今年以來,國際咖啡期貨在大宗商品資產中表現搶眼。洲際交易所(ICE)阿拉比卡咖啡期貨價格已漲77%,至1.9545美元。彭博新聞社對18位分析師開展的預測調查結果顯示,咖啡期貨或在年底前進一步上漲15%,或升至每磅2.25美元。</p>
<center>
<img alt="暴雨+乾旱 巴西混亂天氣令咖啡期貨狂飆77" height="288" src="/uploads/allimg/140903/1HG05M9-0.jpg" width="550" /></center>
<p>
美國經紀商National Securities Corp.首席市場策略師Donald Selkin對彭博新聞社表示:“有鑑於巴西的所有問題,市場極易上揚。人們預期供應將緊縮,並等待更多戲劇性的天氣變化。”</p>
<p>
咖啡期貨價格飆漲將帶動未烘焙咖啡豆現貨價格上揚,零售商將可能被迫提高售價。如此一來,需要購買大量咖啡豆的星巴克等企業也可能提高終端產品價格。咖啡零售商Keurig Green Mountain Inc.,財務總監Frances Rathke本月初表示,他們已於本月提高咖啡零售價格。而星巴克和J.M. Smucker則在此前就已經提高了產品價格。</p>
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